Do you believe in 2160p or 4320p HD?
Having previously written about the insane Japanese Super Hi-Vision plans and how hardware manufacturers like JVC strive to match them, I have decided to come back to this subject. In a way, I have come back to reconsider. The transition to Full HD (1080p) is yet not complete, we are not even halfway there. Terrestrial TV has not yet switched to digital in most countries and production in 16:9 is only starting.
So how come we consider going higher than what we call today 1080p or full HD? Well, I do not know if you have noticed. Full HD panels are now everywhere, typically down to 32 inches. And this is for TV screens, go to computer panels and these resolutions existed before even 1080p was a standard. Soon, even netbooks are going to be able to handle the most demanding 1080p content because that is what consumers want. Digital cameras have started to integrate 720p and soon 1080p is going to be a given even for hardcore DSLR cameras. In two or three years, 1080p is going to be the de facto standard whether we want it or not.
So what does that mean? It is mathematically certain that product differentiation will soon be impossible. Surely there will be quality differences but panels are getting very good, processing power is becoming plenty, so hardware developers need a way out, somewhere to escape. Somewhere with less competition where margins are better and Chinese copies are still impossible or very difficult. So after all, higher than full HD resolutions do not seem that unreal.
And I have the suspicion that it will all start with full HD source material combined with the old software upscaling (or if you like interpolation) trick. Feed Blu-ray material in a high end projector and presto! You get gorgeous 2160p video with four times the information of normal full HD. It is already possible with TV sets presented in recent exhibitions and it is a quick and dirty way to differentiation till recording material like that of the Red DSMC system becomes common for film makers. If we want to be realistic, we should not expect a jump to 4320p (or whatever of that scale) directly from full HD, after all it is better to take things easy and sell more hardware on the way to ultra high resolutions!
3D and higher resolutions are two clear ways to the future. At the moment, we do not know if things will go one or the other way, or even maybe both ways. Although we are reaching the limits of space we are devoting to our home TV sets, progress will not stop here because financial realities and competition unavoidably push things further and further. So what do you think of ultra or super high definition? Which way would you like things to develop?
