electronrun.com

2008 has been a transitional year for mobile devices. While efforts for MID and UMPC devices to become new and growing categories have never materialised, new tendencies came from the two opposing ends of mobile devices.

On the larger size end of things, notebooks inspired the creation of the very light and small machines we have now come to call netbooks. On the smaller size end of things, mobile telephones have inspired the creation of more usable versions of smartphones.

Mobile phones have by now become something like identity cards, everybody has a personal device, in many cases accompanied by a second one for professional use. And this does not apply to developed countries only. People use mobile phones in virtually all continents and countries, in some cases (like in many African countries where landlines simply do not exist) as the sole forms of communication and transactions.

Although smartphones have existed since the 1990s (Nokia’s 9000 series being an old example) they have always been too cumbersome to use or too expensive to buy for the average user. Things however change and there is concrete market signs that smartphones now really gather steam and within five years’ time will be the average small device we all buy:

1. The first iPhone had serious omissions, but it was evident from the first instant that mobile handset manufacturers were scared. After the way the iPod dominated the MP3 player segment, nobody can blame them… The iPhone 3G is even more competitive, despite the fact that Apple’s stranglehold is all present. The result? Everybody strives to come up with iPhone killers, increasing competition and eventually bringing prices down. Thank you Apple.
2. Nokia still retains about 40% of the global mobile phone market, a position earned by retaining a strong profile in Europe (Nokia’s US presence is still very weak) and entering virtually all important rising markets like China and India. To keep things that way, clearly Nokia needs to do a lot more, and its new 5800 is more than a music phone, a device in the correct direction. It gets Nokia in touchscreen territory in a big way and represents a great development of Nokia’s existing OS. Note that the 5800’s price is quite sensible (compared to the usual expensive Nokia offers) and it will come to the US next year, starting from Europe and markets that are not exactly the most advanced. Furthermore, Nokia is looking at several OS possibilities in its tablet product segment, do not rule out these becoming glorified smartphones, to become the sole devices customers would crave for.
3. The Storm 9500 is the first ever touchscreen phone from Blackberry. First impressions talk about a great evolutionary device with a great touchscreen feel and a friendly interface. The way Blackberry devices look and feel I do not regard them any more as professional tools as they address the needs of all of us.
4. Motorola flirts with Android and I do not blame them. This would jumpstart market interest and rejuvenate an aging product line.
5. In the last five years, Microsoft renews its mobile OS ever more frequently. Although we are still at Windows Mobile 6.1 and the newer version 7 is nowhere near, there is widespread knowledge that Microsoft looks in the longer term of things, smartphones would never use up so much of its resources and attention if it was not regarded as a hot product category. Despite HTC’s work to present the Windows Mobile OS in a more attractive way, this does not detract from the fact that the Windows potential is there.

All the above require data plans, something that has appeared in many markets already. At this point, it is not clear how far smartphones can go in terms of acceptable size and computing power. All current efforts try to maximise screen size via touchscreen interfaces and there is a huge wave of application development work for the new operating systems. It is highly unlikely that smartphones are going to approach the usability of a notebook or even netbook for medium complexity tasks, however in my opinion they are now gaining the moment to become mainstream.